JERSEY BLUES

Posted at 7:58 a.m. ET

There may be some hoopla today over some poll results in New Jersey.  I want to inject a cautionary note. Two new polls show a tightening race in the heavily Democratic state.

TRENTON, N.J. - Two presidential race polls out Tuesday indicate Republican John McCain has cut into Barack Obama's lead in New Jersey.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, McCain has narrowed his 10-point gap of a month ago to just 3 percentage points among likely voters, with 48 percent saying they favor Obama to 45 percent supporting McCain.

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Obama's lead at 8 percentage points among likely voters, down from 14 points in July. In the most recent poll, Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent, with McCain having picked up 5 percent of undecided voters since the July poll.

That averages out to about a five-point Obama lead among likelies.  Now, that's great progress for McCain, and I hope it continues.  If McCain can take New Jersey, he probably takes the election, rather easily.

The problem is, we've been here before, as the director of one of the polls, Patrick Murray, cautions:

Murray said Republican momentum picked up in September in New Jersey typically wanes before Election Day.

During the last election campaign in 2004, there was also excitement, based on September poll results, that New Jersey would slip into the Republican column.  But, on election day, it was right back where it normally is - solidly Democratic.   So take these results with two caution pills.  Watch the trends.  If the trends continue relentlessly in McCain's direction, the end result this time may be an upset.  But don't be shocked if you see normalcy returning in October.

One great thing about the McCain surge in states like New Jersey and New York is that it forces Obama to put resources into places that previously were considered safe.  His campaign does not seem to do well under pressure, and this just increases that pressure.

September 16, 2008.